Does the Brexit is the beginning of Europe Union’s end?

Problematic: Does the Brexit is the beginning of Europe Union’s end? Can we say that the states sovereignty has threaten the political agreement?

Europe Union has been created back in 1993 in Maastricht in Holland. The 27 countries signed for an economic and political agreement to avoid war and building a strong estate. The major advantage that this union has implemented is allowing government to keep their sovereignty.

23 years later, United Kingdom is the first major country in Europe to desire leaving the Union. June 2016 a referendum has been implemented. 52% of British voters has voted for quitting the EU.

The principal causes for this separation are:

  • UK don’t want to invest in Europe as much as it did in the past as a member of EU.
  • The trades deals are done at an inefficient rate.
  • There’s an economic dysfunction in Europe since 2008. According Europe members the entity has failed to reduce southern Europe unemployment under 20%.
  • Trade barriers against United Kingdom has been made from EU union, it let a bitter taste to British counterparts.

This Europe drown by the 27 countries has been more an economic union rather than a political one. This is the main issue raised by Brexit situation. In fact, if politically it was some cohesive and common base rules it would eventually avoid Brexit. Expert such as Thomas Piketty has ringed the alarm on Europe global growth. Since the beginning it has

This unprecedent event (Brexit) open the door for anti-EU governments elections. This economic & political move highlight an economic model which is the capitalistic vision.

Capitalism refers to an economic theory in which a society’s means of production are held by private individuals or organizations, not the government, and where prices, distribution of goods, and products are determined by a free market. This economy has become the main economy model of the last century in Europe and is the main driving way of EU. To get rid of this situation UK has decided to quit.

Since joining the European Union in 1973, UK GDP has doubled, surpassing rich non-EU Anglophone nations. The referendum held on June 23, 2016, the popular vote for the UK’s exit from the European Union, could have lasting consequences for the country’s economy.

1) SYNTHESIS

The Brexit deal is going nowhere now that none of the two parties agreed on any statements of the future business deals. Theresa May is keeping the no return position ahead of the vote. However, the Parliament decided that an agreement must be done otherwise Brexit would not happens

The Economics Time related that: “Brexit news – live: Theresa May addresses parliament in minutes amid bid to topple government after crucial vote abandoned

United Kingdom have an agreement but still wants to renegotiate it and at the same time the European executive say that Brussels won’t renegotiate.

However, loads of vote councils are delayed or cancelled because of impossible actual cohesive and united decision. Each party expose two sides of view out of the statements. Some of these statements made for the deal are contrary. It gives Brexiter and pro-Europe citizen confused.

Emergency of agreeing on a substantial & long-term deal for Europe’s future. EU & UK have thing in common and that’s an extreme position on their future trades & human business.

Theresa May (Prime minister) has half of the ministers against her idea to renegotiate with Europe once again the Brexit deal.

A transitory phase has been agreed until 2020 but UK is leaving the EU March 2019.

Jeremy Corbyn says he wants a general election, so that he can renegotiate a “jobs first Brexit” that involves a “permanent customs union and a strong single market deal” – The Independent

a) The economic part

The agreement of March 2019 comes to deny rumors or information about a possible new referendum or British turnaround: it credibility Brexit. The United Kingdom will leave the European Union.

All French and European companies doing business with the United Kingdom will be affected. In fact, the concrete impact will vary according to the nature of the business (direct export, existence or not of Supply Chain, investments, etc.) and the sector of activity. But in all cases, there will be consequences, and, in some cases, they could be heavy if they are not anticipated.

As a fact, the transition period gives a time-lapse, but time is running. It has become necessary to be prepared to face the worst economic, politic & social scenarios. In this way it is essential to figured it out what are the potentials impacts and define matching answers. This permit to limit undesired consequences.

Each company impacted is a case because the scheme of Brexit is not a unique and uniformed impact.

United Kingdom is a small open economy with a competitive advantage on EU trades. EU represent 44% of UK importation & 53% of it exportation. The total amount of exchanges between UK & EU is triple the one UK&US. Exportation to EU represent 12% of UK GDP. This all to say that UK & EU relationship are enough essential to be considered in an important way. That would explain why the deal takes this amount of time to be done.

The costs and benefits of the UK leaving the EU are difficult to understand on its entirety. Losses due to trade alone could be very essential. Even under very optimistic assumptions, the sum of the static and dynamic trade losses would be almost 2.2% of GDP. More pessimistic calculations would lead to a long-term loss of almost one out of ten national income.

The Political part

According to the political analysis by CEP two scenarios are more likely to happens:

In the optimistic scenario, the UK manages to remain a member of the European Economic Area, like Norway and Switzerland, which will allow it to maintain its access to the European internal market.

Some analysts, however, doubt the capacity of this former Union heavyweight to obtain such a favorable concession. The other side of the issue would be an increase in trade-related costs for the UK.

There is good reason to believe that trade-related costs are rising in Brexit. This would raise tariff barriers between the European Union and the United Kingdom. This would lead to an increase in non-tariff barriers arising from regulations, customs controls at the borders and human exchanges as well.

Finance Minister from Germany is warning the European institutions saying that the British exit could threaten the financials market.

The political aspect of this British exit can be influenced by the way UK is leaving the EU.

In fact, if the United Kingdom would not take part in the negotiations on closer ties within the Union with the bonus of reducing non-tariff barriers.

In such a case, the outgoing State would no longer have access to the European internal market and would no longer be obliged to offer unrestricted access to its national market to other Member States. British products would then be governed by the rules of the World Trade Organization and may face high tariffs and other barriers to access the European Single Market.

The Open Europe`s report (2015) states that UK GDP could drop by 2.2% if it leaves the EU by failing to reach an agreement with the union or if it turns to the EU protectionism. According to the opinion of many economists, the best alternative for the United Kingdom would be the adoption of liberal policies and deregulation of the market.

As The Observer explains, the Lib-Dems (British party), aspire to be the voice of Remain voters. They expect to rally conservative voters who voted to stay in the EU and who are disappointed by Theresa May’s hard Brexit and Labor voters who do not follow Jeremy Corbyn’s all-left line.

And for the Telegraph, this best result for the Lib-Dem in a partial legislative for 26 years could well augur other successes. Especially in Richmond Park, a riding of London.

Furthermore, this whole situation has shaken neighboring countries regarding the European Union. In fact, several extreme party has reached a new level of influence since Brexit conversation happened.

The map below shows how growing this new idea of fragmentation of EU. In this case we can ask if it is the new wave taking over the general idea of united estates. This put ahead the big question of EU legitimacy within states sovereignty. As a matter of fact, this has open the door for a bigger Euroscepticism which was present at the beginning of the EU creation. This has grown so much that politically, UE citizen voted in mass for anti-EU parties.

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